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Descriptors:
Advanced Placement; Regression (Statistics); Grade 8; Grade 10; Probability; Prediction; Least Squares Statistics

Abstract:
The purpose of this Methodological Brief is to present a brief primer on logistic regression, a commonly used technique when modeling dichotomous outcomes. Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), logistic regression techniques were used to investigate student-level variables in eighth grade (i.e., enrolled in a gifted class, gender, and socioeconomic status) that were associated with taking an Advanced Placement course in the 10th grade. Through the use of the NELS:88 data, the authors provide an example of how to interpret both categorical and continuous independent variables and illustrate how model fit can be assessed. (Contains 5 tables, 3 figures and 10 notes.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Sampling; Probability; Classification; Cognitive Processes; Models; Novelty (Stimulus Dimension)

Abstract:
People are capable of imagining and generating new category exemplars and categories. This ability has not been addressed by previous models of categorization, most of which focus on classifying category exemplars rather than generating them. We develop a formal account of exemplar and category generation which proposes that category knowledge is represented by probability distributions over exemplars and categories, and that new exemplars and categories are generated by sampling from these distributions. This sampling account of generation is evaluated in two pairs of behavioral experiments. In the first pair of experiments, participants were asked to generate novel exemplars of a category. In the second pair of experiments, participants were asked to generate a novel category after observing exemplars from several related categories. The results suggest that generation is influenced by both structural and distributional properties of the observed categories, and we argue that our data are better explained by the sampling account than by several alternative approaches. (Contains 18 figures.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
High Schools; Public Schools; School Districts; Urban Education; At Risk Students; Screening Tests; Grade 9; Intervention; Time Management; Credits; Computation; Probability; Dropout Research; Identification; Prediction; Middle School Students; High School Students

Abstract:
This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning work by using both preexisting and new district data sets to build predictive models for identifying students at elevated risk of an entire series of adverse outcomes in high school and beyond, beginning with grade 9 retention and continuing into postsecondary education. This early warning work in MPS makes at least 2 significant contributions to the existing base of research: (a) broadening the set of outcomes that early warning work can predict; and (b) investigating new ways of conveying early warning information to practitioners, such as probability estimates for each outcome and the "total quality credits" (TQC) measure. (Contains 4 tables, 6 figures, and 5 footnotes.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Job Security; Probability; Human Capital; Social Capital; Wages; Labor Supply; Rural Development; Foreign Countries; Employment; Agricultural Occupations; Interpersonal Relationship; Role; Income; Place of Residence; Prediction

Abstract:
This article analyzes off-farm work among subsistence-level farmers in the Santarem region of the Brazilian Amazon. We build on the literature on rural livelihoods in the Global South by exploring how the opportunity to work off the farm is embedded in social relationships. We additionally differentiate our analysis by type of off-farm work, and examine how other characteristics such as human capital, the available labor supply, and access to infrastructure vary by work outcome. In general, the factors that contribute to more secure, relatively higher-paying work differ from those important in understanding patterns of lower-paying, daily wage work. We find that on-farm social capital, measured as the presence of a co-resident on the property who works off the farm, increases an individual's probability of working off the farm, but has a stronger effect for lower-wage work. We also find that the farm owner's relationship to households on the farm property plays a significant role in predicting patterns of off-farm work. These findings suggest that social capital plays an important role in providing access to employment and therefore to cash income, but that farm-level social capital does not necessarily provide pathways to stable or high-paying jobs outside agriculture. (Contains 3 tables, 3 figures and 16 footnotes.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Foreign Countries; Life Satisfaction; Motivation; Economic Progress; Living Standards; Fantasy; Probability; Multivariate Analysis

Abstract:
The literature in economic psychology and quality-of-life studies alludes to a negative relationship between materialism and life satisfaction. In contrast, the macroeconomic literature implies a positive relationship between material consumption and economic growth. That is, materialism may be both good and bad. We develop a model that reconciles these two contrasting viewpoints by asserting that materialism may lead to life dissatisfaction when materialistic people evaluate their standard of living using fantasy-based expectations (e.g., ideal expectations), which increases the likelihood that they would evaluate their standard of living negatively. In turn, dissatisfaction with standard of living increases the likelihood that they would evaluate their life negatively. However, materialistic people who evaluate their standard of living using reality-based expectations (e.g., ability expectations) are likely to feel more economically motivated than their non-materialistic counterparts, and this economic motivation is likely to contribute significantly and positively to life satisfaction. Survey data were collected from seven major cities each in a different country (Australia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Germany, Egypt, Korea, Turkey, and the USA) using a probability sample (cluster sampling method involving income stratification). The results provide support for the model. The economic public policy implications concerning how people evaluate their standard of living using ability-based expectations are discussed in the context of the ideals of meritocracy. Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Music Education; Educational Policy; Public Policy; Federal Legislation; Educational Legislation; High Schools; Graduation Requirements; Probability; Academic Standards; State Standards; Public Schools; Private Schools

Abstract:
This article reviews the political and empirical record within music education surrounding the Goals 2000: Educate America Act and reports a new study evaluating the effects of the law on music and arts education policies in U.S. high schools. School-level data (N = 670 schools) from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 and the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 were independently pooled to estimate the effects of Goals 2000 on the number of unique music courses high schools offered, the probability that schools would enforce a local arts graduation requirement, and the number of arts courses required for graduation. Results showed no effect on the number of unique music courses offered. However, for schools in states that prior to Goals 2000 had no arts education mandate or had a flexible arts education mandate, Goals 2000 significantly increased the probability of schools requiring the arts, as well as the number of arts credits required for graduation. The article concludes with implications for the arts in the current Common Core Standards movement. (Contains 6 tables, 1 figure and 1 note.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Academic Achievement; Tutoring; Foreign Countries; Probability; Private Schools; Family Characteristics; Family Income; College Entrance Examinations; Parent Background; Educational Attainment; Regression (Statistics); Equal Education; Social Mobility; Scores; College Preparation

Abstract:
This paper examines the determinants of students' performance on the entrance test at Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Brazil. Particular attention is paid to the importance of family background variables, such as parents' education and family income, on students' performance and how they relate to the probability of attending public schools and private tutoring classes. Results suggest that parents' education and study environment are key determinants of students' achievements. Also, they are positively related to the probability of attending private schools and private tutoring classes, which are both estimated to have a positive effect on test scores. Finally, the quantile regression estimation shows that the effect of parents' education and family income varies across the conditional score distribution. These results highlight the need for developing policies that seek to improve the equality of opportunities in access to higher education. They are of special importance for a developing country like Brazil, in which not only the level of inequality is among the highest in the world but also the level of social intergenerational mobility is among the lowest compared to international standards. (Contains 4 tables, 2 figures and 17 notes.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Academic Achievement; Grade Point Average; College Attendance; Student Attitudes; Paying for College; Parent Financial Contribution; Graduation Rate; Probability; Student Characteristics; Financial Support; College Students; Family Income; Socioeconomic Status; Educational Attainment; Family Structure; Racial Differences

Abstract:
Evidence shows that parental financial investments increase college attendance, but we know little about how these investments shape postsecondary achievement. Two theoretical frameworks suggest diametric conclusions. Some studies operate from a more-is-more perspective in which children use calculated parental allocations to make academic progress. In contrast, a "more-is-less" perspective, rooted in a different model of rational behavior, suggests that parental investments create a disincentive for student achievement. I adjudicate between these frameworks, using data from nationally representative postsecondary datasets to determine what effect financial parental investments have on student GPA and degree completion. The findings suggest seemingly contradictory processes. Parental aid decreases student GPA, but it increases the odds of graduating--net of explanatory variables and accounting for alternative funding. Rather than strategically using resources in accordance with parental goals, or maximizing on their ability to avoid academic work, students are satisficing: they meet the criteria for adequacy on multiple fronts, rather than optimizing their chances for a particular outcome. As a result, students with parental funding often perform well enough to stay in school but dial down their academic efforts. I conclude by highlighting the importance of life stage and institutional context for parental investment. (Contains 26 notes, 6 tables and 2 figures.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Video Technology; Probability; Mathematics Instruction; Statistics; Mathematics; Mathematics Education; Elementary Education; Mathematics Teachers; Middle School Teachers; Elementary School Mathematics; Elementary School Teachers

Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses within a collaborative course design were used to support a teaching experiment about teachers' conceptions of random processes. In particular, teachers were asked whether the outcomes of "Rock-Paper-Scissors" (RPS) are generated randomly or not, were presented with a definition for random selection, and were asked to come to a conclusion about RPS. Teachers struggled to reconcile the equality of winning outcomes for each player with the potential for human interference in the process of generating outcomes. Ultimately, teachers concluded the outcomes were not generated randomly, but encountered a variety of unexpected obstacles along the way. (Contains 2 figures and 3 tables.) Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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Descriptors:
Item Response Theory; Statistical Inference; Probability; Psychometrics; Measurement Techniques; Error of Measurement; Scores; Test Items; Simulation

Abstract:
Most dichotomous item response models share the assumption of latent monotonicity, which states that the probability of a positive response to an item is a nondecreasing function of a latent variable intended to be measured. Latent monotonicity cannot be evaluated directly, but it implies manifest monotonicity across a variety of observed scores, such as the restscore, a single item score, and in some cases the total score. In this study, we show that manifest monotonicity can be tested by means of the order-constrained statistical inference framework. We propose a procedure that uses this framework to determine whether manifest monotonicity should be rejected for specific items. This approach provides a likelihood ratio test for which the p-value can be approximated through simulation. A simulation study is presented that evaluates the Type I error rate and power of the test, and the procedure is applied to empirical data. Note:The following two links are not-applicable for text-based browsers or screen-reading software. Show Hide Full Abstract

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