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Descriptors:
Prediction; Educational Trends; Ethnicity; Race; Private Schools; Public Schools; High School Graduates; Regional Characteristics; Differences; Enrollment Projections
Abstract:
This publication marks the 7th edition of the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education's projections of high school graduates. It updates forecasts of the number of high school graduates for public and nonpublic schools for the nation, four geographic regions, and all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and also includes projections of public school graduates by race/ethnicity. The report, which has a history reaching back over 30 years, is recognized widely as the most comprehensive and reliable data source on the future size and composition of high school graduating classes across the country. It also serves as a vital tool for effective educational planning and policymaking. The 7th edition includes data on enrollments and graduates by state and for major racial/ethnic groups covering the period from 1991-92 through 2021-22. Chapters 2 and 3 of this report documents, first, the overall change in the number of high school graduates that the nation, each of its four geographic regions, and individual states may expect to see in the coming years. These data include graduates from public schools as well as estimated figures for graduates from nonpublic schools. The next chapter, following an introduction, examines more closely the racial/ethnic composition of public high school graduating classes. Though there are important differences by state, the central finding in this chapter is the rapid diversification of virtually all states' high school graduate cohorts, which is largely the result of a dramatic upsurge in Hispanic students combined with a decrease in the number of White non-Hispanic students. Next comes a more detailed description of the methodology used in this study. Finally, an appendix provides state-by-state views of the number of high school graduates from public and nonpublic schools, as well as the composition of public school graduates by race/ethnicity. This edition is is targeted at a wide range of users, including researchers, planners, policymakers, businesspeople, and education leaders. (Contains 15 tables and 61 figures.) [For the Executive Summary of this document, see ED500531.]
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